In the worst case, deaths are forecast to exceed 230,000, which would be more than 10 times greater than the toll from the Great East Japan Earthquake of March 2011. I made an information disclosure request to the education ministry and, after about a month, obtained the minutes, which revealed numerous surprising comments that had never been disclosed. More than 70 years have passed since the previous such quake in this region, which sees a major shake every 100 to 150 years. A Japanese Government panel said on Tuesday, February 26, the risk of a major earthquake in the near future is high. In 1999, the likelihood of the occurrence of a great earthquake in the Tokai area in the period 2000-2010 was estimated to be in the range of 0.35–0.45. North Korea's Kim admits economic missteps as rare party congress opens, Hong Kong arrests dozens, including U.S. citizen, under security law, J. After that … He has predicted that the catastrophic tremor in question would take place in Japan, the region of Nankai Trough near the Pacific coast, exactly at (34.34°N, 137.55°K) geographic coordinate. In the past, the Nankai Trough has experienced repeated quakes at regular 100- to 150-year intervals. The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and following predictions of a Nankai megathrust earthquake have aroused great concerns on tsunami risks among the Japanese people. Many seismologists claim the same method should be used (for the Nankai Trough earthquake), but people in charge of disaster prevention claim the figure shouldn’t be lowered at this point.”. … The Earthquake Research Committee announced in May 2013 that the chance of a quake of magnitude 8 or more happening in the Nankai Trough within 30 years was between 60 and 70 percent. Results of strong ground motion prediction for the Nankai and Tonankai earthquakes (M~8) by a hybrid method of three dimension finite difference method (3DFDM) and the stochastic Green’s function method (SGFM) are presented. A Disaster to Dwarf 3/11? Then Sagiya said something even more shocking. So it’s totally understandable that people want to rely on it, like they rely on the probability of rain, which is familiar and easy to understand. The Nankai Trough Earthquakes, megathrust earthquakes with a magnitude of around 8 or more along the Nankai Trough, has occurred repeatedly with a repetition interval of roughly 100-150 year, while the plate boundary beneath the Tokai region has not experienced large seismic slip since the 1854 Ansei Earthquake (Figure 1). The Nankai Trough is a 700-kilometer-long sea-bottom depression that runs about 100 km off the southern coast from Shizuoka Prefecture to the Shikoku region. Estimated Damage 4 3. A subcommittee on ocean-trench earthquakes has prominent seismologists listed as members, and they are tasked with assessing the latest probability figures of quakes nationwide. The reports stated that if a 9.0 earthquake occurred on the Nankai Trough, the effects would be very serious. Problematic? This study details an inversion method for real-time tsunami predictions using only observed offshore tsunami data. Four phases and seven key tasks “Life-saving” phase Task 1 Disseminate timely information, and fully support evacuation from mega tsunami’s landfall in short timeframe. “The probability figure has a big impact. But we should mention somewhere that the figure can be 20 percent if we use a different method.”. Tokai Earthquake History . We simulated the broadband ground motions likely to be produced by the hypothetical Nankai earthquake: the earthquake expected to give rise to the most severe long-period … Quakes in the Nankai Trough, however, have varied greatly in frequency in the past, striking the region once in a few decades at times and once every few centuries at other times. The Japan Meteorological Agency has contingency plans whereby, if a quake measuring 6.8 or higher in magnitude occurs along the Nankai Trough, or if abnormal changes are observed along the plate boundary, it will issue an extraordinary announcement and establish an evaluation committee to assess the likelihood of a subsequent megaquake. So why did they release the figures? Along the Nankai Trough, megathrust earthquakes with a magnitude 8 or more occur repeatedly. Working on Effective … The Japanese government panel is estimating that a 9.0 magnitude earthquake in the Nankai Trough region will do damage worth $2.2 billion, a figure that is much higher than the $177 million from the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011. If the evaluation committee determines that the initial quake has triggered a slip along half of the fault where a major follow-up quake is expected—a so-called han-ware event—government disaster guidelines will call for a cautionary response, including evacuation for one week beyond the lifting of tsunami warnings for residents of coastal and riverside areas where it is deemed there would be insufficient time to flee a tsunami caused by a subsequent disaster. But it never changed.”. But it is difficult to make good use of earthquake probabilities, since earthquakes don’t happen that often.”. | CHUNICHI SHIMBUN. If the Nankai Trough Earthquake were to occur as predicted, the Mie prefecture would experience an earthquake over 94.7% of the total area (5777 km 2) with a JMA seismic intensity of 6 or greater and a tsunami affecting 4.9% of the total area (283 km 2) . 1). Nankai Trough. Nankai Trough megaquake predicted maximum tsunami heights. These quakes, which happen periodically, feature large tsunamis, and a quake of the largest scale could see locations from Shizuoka Prefecture to Miyazaki Prefecture experience shaking as strong as 7 on Japan’s seismic intensity scale, with tsunamis of heights exceeding 10 meters striking a wide area of the Pacific coast from the Kantō region, home to Tokyo, down to Kyūshū. Minutes of the subcommittee’s meetings held between 2012 and 2013 — obtained by the Chunichi Shimbun — showed that although the specific names of those who made the remarks were blacked out, almost all of the members expressed doubt over the calculation method for the chance of the Nankai Trough quake occurring within the next 30 years. Despite the uncertainty of when such an earthquake will occur, local authorities are already taking action to prepare … Over 70 years have passed since the most recent shakes, the 1944 Tōnankai earthquake and the 1946 Nankai earthquake. The “time-predictable model” apparently refers to a special method used only for calculating the probability of the Nankai Trough quake — something Sagiya described as a method that allowed figures to be inflated and given special treatment. This is a complete misunderstanding. From studying centuries of earthquake records, Japanese geologists have mapped out segments of the subduction zone that seem to rupture regularly and repeatedly. The last Nankai was in 1946 but as it turns out, this earthquake was quite small, which means there is still a great deal of stress left to be released. But the comment he made was unexpected. It is meant to determine the probability by calculating the average frequency of occurrence from past data on quakes. It’s based on upheavals of (a stratum at) Murotsu Port, northwest of Cape Muroto in Kochi Prefecture, which have been recorded three times between 1707 and 1945,” Sagiya said. Lying a little further south is the Nankai Trough. These are generally referred to as Nankai Trough Earthquakes. Both events were great earthquakes … After talking with Sagiya, I thought the editor made the right call. The following video shows the daily … 2nd ser. Long-period strong motions simulation is performed for crustal structure model that includes 3D structures of the subducting Philippine Sea plate and the Osaka sedimentary basin. With the ultimate aim of being fully prepared for this calamity, the platform enables local governments, medical institutions, private corporations and NGOs to … The last Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes occurred in 1944 and 1946 respectively. The damaged areas over the 11 scenarios were about 40 square kilometers. 00:01:31:17 DR MARYANNE DEMASI: Just 900km south of Japan's island of Honshu, the Nankai Trough lies along the Pacific Ring of Fire, where 90% of the world's earthquakes occur. Key Words: Ground motion prediction, Nankai and Tonankai earthquakes, Kanto earthquakes, Off Boso Peninsula earthquake, variability analysis INTRODUCTION Ground motion prediction is one of the most important issues to be tackled in order to assure seismic design against earthquakes that might come near future. ], earthquake Uncertainty in the ground motion prediction depends on how well we know about the … A future great earthquake involving rupture along this and possibly other segments has been proposed as a major risk for the southern coast of Honshu. The 70 percent figure for the Nankai Trough quake was set to be significantly lowered. Estimates say there is a 70-80% chance that the Nankai will occur within the next 30 years. Damage predictions in Mie Prefecture, if the Nankai Trough Earthquake occurs, will be approximately 9,200 deaths caused by the earthquake and 42,000 deaths caused by tsunami. Keiichi Ozawa is a Chunichi Shimbun reporter who covered nuclear power and earthquakes after an earthquake-triggered tsunami caused meltdowns at the Fukushima No. “If the government presented a figure of 80 percent, then people would think the earthquake coming next would be a Nankai Trough quake and disaster prevention measures would be concentrated on that particular quake,” Sagiya said. The inundation depth is in ranging from 0.5 – Island, Japan, based on 18.0 m. When the inundation map results were overlaid with population map at the same location by using GIS technique, tsunami hazard map was estimated by showing the number of stakeholder. Another member questioned the method that results in high probabilities, saying: “If you allow me to make a scientific argument, I undoubtedly think it is not valid to maintain (the previous method). The part southwest of Tokyo, underlying the coast around Suruga Bay, is called the Tokai segment. Experts believe there is a 70% to 80% probability of a severe Nankai Trough earthquake within 30 years. In the Ansei Tōkai quake in 1854, another huge quake struck just 32 hours later, while the 1946 Nankai earthquake is thought to have been primed in part by the 1944 Tōnankai earthquake, all resulting in great destruction. While the government estimates there is a 70 to 80 percent chance of a magnitude 8 to 9 quake occurring along the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years, the survey underscores the increasing difficulty of precisely predicting the timing, location and strength of imminent quakes, based on observational data. But it was clear why only the estimate for the Nankai Trough quake was exceptionally high — a different calculation method seismologists believed wasn’t credible was applied. But what exactly is a Nankai Trough megaquake? To alleviate these negative attitudes, this study … The red dots represent firms whose production will plummet below 40% of their production capacity before the earthquake, while the orange dots represent firms whose production will plunge into the 40 – 80% range (i.e. I was perplexed by the comments. Suga expected to declare second emergency for Tokyo area. Predicted maximum seismic intensities from a Nankai Trough megaquake from 7, the strongest shaking on the scale, down to 3 and below. Monitoring System for Tokai Earthquake 10 (1) Governmental System of Earthquake Research 10 (2) Observation Network for Earthquake Prediction in Shizuoka Prefecture 11 5. Seismologists consider it untrustworthy,” Sagiya said. “But how can you get (the probability rate) only by how much the land rose in the past? The method that was described in the minutes as the basis for the 20 percent figure is applied to calculate probabilities for all the other earthquakes predicted in Japan. Earthquake predictions are first presented by seismologists at a subcommittee on ocean-trench earthquakes to be approved by the Earthquake Research Committee, a part of the government’s Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion headed by the minister of education, culture, sports, science and technology. One of the members said: “If we calculate the probability now using the method we’ve been using all along, we will come up with 70 or 80 percent for the next 30 years. As a result, there is a strong likelihood the fault-line will not wait the usual 100 years, and the next earthquake can be expected in the first half of this century. “Personally, I think it is extremely misleading,” he said. 230,000 deaths from … disaster Figures only fuel a sense of crisis. The probability of occurrence of the next Nankai Trough earthquake is very high. Given this likelihood, estimating the resulting tsunami in real time is desirable. We shouldn’t call that science. The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Sponsored contents planned and edited by JT Media Enterprise Division. Translated and edited by Nippon.com. A short story was published on the day of the announcement, saying that the government’s earthquake committee “slightly revised upward from last year the probability of a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake hitting the Nankai Trough within 30 years to between 70 and 80 percent.”, I was feeling uneasy, thinking there must be something more to the story, remembering Sagiya’s comments just before he hung up the phone: “I’m sure the discussions made in the subcommittee meetings are all recorded in the minutes.”. It was a few days before Feb. 9, 2018, when the Earthquake Research Committee, the government’s expert panel, announced it had revised its projections about the chance of a major earthquake in the Nankai Trough, off Japan’s Pacific coast, in the next 30 years from about 70 percent to between 70 and 80 percent. Up until 2012, the probability for such a quake was said to be around 60 to 70 percent. Numerical experiments demonstrate that (1) the tsunami wave source is estimated fairly well … In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever.By subscribing, you can help us get the story right. Nankai Trough earthquake An earthquake that is estimated to happen with in 30 years with a probability of 70% to 80% in the areas along the Nankai Trough, which stretches from Suruga Bay in Shizuoka Prefecture to the sea off Kyushu. AMDA Platform for Nankai Trough Earthquake Disaster Strategy. A research group of University of Shizuoka and Shizuoka University succeeded in estimating the state of the stress in and around the focal region of the Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake by conducting statistical analysis of the seismic activity (Fig. It was hard for me to understand the mechanisms of the two different methods used to calculate the probabilities of earthquakes just by listening to Sagiya’s explanations over the phone. The minutes included numerous comments by members showing negative reactions to presenting probabilities. This study details an inversion method for real-time tsunami predictions using only observed offshore tsunami data. 1 nuclear power plant in March 2011. (Originally published in Japanese on FNN’s Prime Online on May 24, 2019. The Predicted Nankai Quake. These unanticipated words — inflated, special treatment and ulterior motives — puzzled me even more and prompted me to investigate further. 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